I took pretty detailed notes for
Andrew Ross Sorkin's talk at the Athenaeum.
I must say I was disappointed. It's not because I disagree with him philosophically -- I disagree with a lot of Ath speakers for all kinds of reasons -- but because his contentions seemed so ill-supported.
Allow me to illustrate with a few examples.
1. He started his talk with a discussion about how bad things would have gotten had we not passed TARP and the stimulus. Much of this was doom and gloom and seeing as he went through the trouble of chronicling it, I'll take his facts as given (though I have no reason to, might as well.) One of the points he made was that unemployment could have approached
24 percent once Lehman Brothers collapsed and other companies teetered on bankruptcy. Maybe so, but he bases this prediction on a model by the New York Federal Reserve, which, in my view, has egg on its face for failing to predict the
first crisis. Why would we trust a model from them about the future when they couldn't forecast the present?
Let's assume, though, that that's true. We have no idea how long 24 percent unemployment would have lasted. I would submit to you that it would not have lasted nearly as long as the nearly
three years of historic unemployment we have had. Would you rather have one year of 24% unemployment or five years of 10%?
Oh, and let's not forget that some "models" from the government -- and most of the principals in Sorkin's book,
Too Big To Fail, are from the government or the corporatist business culture -- were totally wrong about the impetus to pass the stimulus in the first place.
Sorry, but I don't trust anybody until I can verify it for myself.
2. If a lot of what went on was so "grey" and all of the characters were so complicated, as Sorkin suggests, why did he keep saying "in a
perfect world,... I would favor this policy..." Okay, but how relevant is that?
We don't create policies for perfect beings. Imperfect beings make policy. Why waste your time designing the ideal?
And if you are going to think about the ideal, why are you so convinced that your ideas are the ideal?
Why would small banks be better? (Professor Charles Calomiris
in the pages of The Wall Street Journal says that bigger banks would be better, suggesting a kind of natural monopoly.)
Why do we need a Consumer Protection Bureau? The Consumer Protection Bureau has effectively banned pay day loans. Pay day loans are a source of credit for poor people (or people with bad credit). Won't that lead to less credit and won't that be a credit crunch? And don't you not want a credit crunch because that'll lead to less firm formation?
Why was letting Lehman Brothers go a bad thing? Or, by extension: How can you support entrepreneurial creativity when you would have stopped creative destruction from occurring? If "innovation is the only way out," could it be that Lehman Brothers needed to fail for something else to innovate out of its embers?
Why do we need a new Glass-Steagall Act when nowhere else in the world has a Glass-Steagall Act that reportedly separates "casino" and "banking"? Might it be that we are an
aberration? Couldn't something else be to blame?
In times of uncertainty, don't give advice because it will be bad. For instance, Sorkin was dismissive of that "buy gold" attitude, but of the people I know who invest seriously, only one has doubled his money in the past year -- and he did it by investing in gold (and silver.)
I asked Sorkin about where he thought the next bubble was -- I suggested higher education based upon my reading of Peter Thiel's comments. He ignored the question and said something about health care and how we need to bend the cost curve. From where I'm looking, this was rather revealing.
The four major bubbles of my lifetime have been the following: tech bubble, housing bubble, higher education bubble, health care bubble. How do I know these were bubbles? Because the assets were often priced much, much than the rate of inflation.
Only one of those -- the tech bubble -- had minimal government intrusion. The bubble burst -- and we got Web 2.0. When those other bubbles burst , what did we get?
Misery.