Here's something highly unorthodox that I'm about to do: give my critics more ammunition against me by publishing a very initial draft of something I have written. I am submitting a proposal for a fellowship for which I am applying. James Surowiecki believes in the wisdom of crowds; I have learned from this site that such wisdom is cruel, so let me have it! If it is awful, I trust my readers, who never lack for eloquence, will spare me no discomfort. If it needs work, let me know where I can fix it. Most of the citations have not been added, but some have and it deliberately trails off at the end.
Here goes:
“Assassin’s Mace” and the Development of – and Resistance to – China’s Cruise Missile Technology
Abstract: This paper will seeks to explore China’s development of cruise missiles and various countries – America’s, Australia’s, and Taiwan’s – proposed deterrence capabilities. It will argue that successful deterrence of China requires studying how it came to develop its capabilities through the assistance of subterfuge, Soviet – then Russian – assistance, and Chinese scientific ingenuity, all of which are part of “Assasin’s Mace,” the Chinese plan to deny American hegemony in the South Pacific. This paper’s research will be directed by H. William Rood, W. M. Keck professor of International Strategic Studies, emeritus. This synopsis is dutifully submitted by Charles C. Johnson for consideration.
In recent months China’s rhetoric has grown increasingly bellicose and now, suddenly, they have the teeth to put the bite into their bark. Analysts noticed the sleek, new DH-10 land-attack cruise missile amidst the marching People’s Liberation Army soldiers during its October 1st celebrations.[1] Pentagon reports put the number of missiles in their arsenal at some 3,300.[2] China has, according to a recent defense report, “the most active land-based ballistic and cruise missile program in the world.” It has come a long way from its early ‘90s position of seeking only to re-take Taiwan. Its newest weapons, according to a RAND corporation study, have improved accuracy and reach the Japanese mainland and American bases in Okinawa and South Korea. This range limits America’s ability to respond to regional crises and makes supporting carrier groups all but impossible.
A report in The Strait Times quotes some experts as saying that China’s new missile technology may “herald the end of U.S. naval domination.” Other experts say that China’s targeting of the carriers is still difficult as China lacks enough low-earth-orbit reconnaissance satellites – something that hope to remedy in the coming years with the deployment of “Compass,” a satellite constellation that seeks to rival GPS. According to the state news agency, Xinhua, China launched the fifth of a 35-satellite constellation project that is due for completion in 2020.[3] Within two years, it should have a regional reach with five geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites, five inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites and four medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites. By 2020 the full constellation should provide global coverage with five GEO, three IGSO and 27 MEO satellites.
China’s space capabilities continue to increase apace. China successfully tested an antisatellite missile in 2007 and has used lasers to temporarily blind U.S. satellites. This missile technology is crucial to enforcing China’s hoped for control of the South China sea, which it recently declared includes some 1.3 million square miles by counting .[4] Meanwhile China has stymied action in the U.N. Security Council over North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean naval ship. The proliferation of that aforementioned China’s cruise missiles proliferation is of obvious concern, as N. Korea, can legally fire cruise missiles, which they fired in July 2009. (They are banned from firing Scuds, medium-range missiles or long-range missiles under a U.N. resolution – which they habitually ignore.)[5]
Some of these cruise missiles are, unfortunately, American-designed. Since the Clinton Administration taught the Chinese how to put satellites into orbit – and wound up giving them better guidance systems – America’s systems and personnel have been compromised. Take, for instance, Noshir Gowadia, a 67-year-old India-born Northrup Grumman engineer, who was convicted of five offenses including conspiracy, money laundering, and charges that he designed helped China design a cruise missile exhaust nozzle that would give off less heat, thus enabling it to evade infrared radar detection and U.S. heat-seeking missiles.[6] He was allegedly paid at least $110,000, which he allegedly used to help pay a $15,000-a-month mortgage on a multimillion-dollar home he built on Maui's north shore.[7] He had made repeated trips to China between 2003 and 2005. It was not the first time that China has used espionage to advance its technological ends, nor the last. Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy wrote an article titled, “the top 10 Chinese cyber attacks (that we know of).”[8] Rogin quoted SANS institute research director, Allan Paller, as saying that “[t]he problem is 1,000 times worse than what we see.” The worst of these penetrations was that of the $300 billion Joint Strike Fighter project -- the Defense Department's costliest weapons program ever.[9] As we shall see, America has possible responses to these cyber invasions and growing Chinese GPS capability.[10]
Taiwanese Response
Jeff Bergner, former Assistant Secretary of State, lauded President Obama for continuing much of President Bush’s strategy.[11] He cited the $6.4 Taiwanese arms sale as of one of his many cases-in-point, but he didn’t discuss the package itself, which features much of the same materiel – 60 Blackhawk helicopters, Patriot missiles, minesweepers, Harpoon antiship missiles, and command-and-control software. These weapons won’t do much to stop China’s continuing military innovations – or defend Taiwan, according to Lin Chong-pin, a professor of strategic studies at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.[12] These are “at most maintenance items,” says Lin. China has some 1,400 short-range ballistic missiles and scores of cruise missiles aimed at Taiwan. Two or three Patriot missiles, he notes, are needed to knock out every Chinese missile, so the 114 Patriot missiles are wholly inadequate. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, are likely more useful for disaster relief than for military defense. Arthur Ding, secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CCAPS) in Taipei, argues that Taiwan needs its own deterrent capability that “make[s] China think twice” about an attack.
[1] Trefor Moss, “ Parade Confirms PLA’s Ongoing Transformation,” Jane’s Defense Weekly, October 7, 2009.
[2] U.S. Pentagon Report to Congress 2010.
[3] Robert Karniol, “China’s Satellite Is Its Answer to U.S.’s GPS,” The Strait Times, August 23, 2010.
[4] Andrew F. Krepinevich, “China’s ‘Finlandization’ Strategy in the Pacific,” The Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2010.
[5] “N. Korea Defies U.S.: Rogue State Fires Off Seven Missiles,” Tasmanian, July 5, 2009.
[6] “Engineer Convicted of Selling U.S. Secrets,” The Boston Globe, August 10, 2010.
[7] “Stealth Jet Engineer Sold Secrets to China,” The Daily Telegraph, August 11, 2010.
[9] Siobhan Gorman, August Cole, and Yochi Dreazen, “Computer Spies Breach Fighter-Jet Project,” The Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2009.
[10] See American discussion for “Operation Farewell” and “Navwar”
[11] Visit to Claremont McKenna, “The Rhetoric and Reality of the Obama Administration,” September 21, 2010.
[12] Jonathan Adams, “Why U.S. Ignores China and Sells Arms to Taiwan,” Christian Science Monitor, February 18, 2010.
